On 4 July, the Conservatives suffered their worst election defeat in history, with a loss of 250 seats. After 14 years in power, and with his party way behind in the polls, Rishi Sunak called a snap election. The resulting disastrous campaign did nothing to change the government’s fortunes or their standing with the British public. Their time was finally up.

For the beleaguered party, the best that could be hoped for was a rejection of far-right policies and that lessons might be learned. Recent behaviour in the Commons by certain shadow cabinet ministers would suggest that they haven’t learned a thing.

So that "constructive opposition" thing lasted about five minutes pic.twitter.com/nLXwtUatNY

— Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) July 20, 2024

“Constructive opposition”

Last Friday, new appointees were added to the shadow cabinet by Sunak, bringing the total number of shadow cabinet ministers to 51, or 42% of the total number of Tory MPs. Such is the dearth of MPs and ministers that 10 of those new appointees are being tasked with two or three different roles.

If the British public had been expecting better parliamentary behaviour from the Tories in opposition than in government, then we had set our sights too high. While many shadow cabinets ministers are new to the role and could be forgiven for failing to understand parliamentary rules and customs, it is those more experienced members who are causing discord in Westminster.

The worst examples of recent bad behaviour were to be witnessed during a speech by Environment Secretary Steve Deed. Steve Barclay, the shadow environment secretary, was critical of Labour plans for on-shore wind farms. Barclay said that the government planned “to take vast amounts of farmland out of food production in order to prioritise the eco-zealotry”. During his response, Deed denied a number of interventions from front-benchers Barclay, Kemi Badenoch and Victoria Atkins. Badenoch and Atkins, did not take it well.

Abominable behaviour

While Badenoch may have had a dig at Reed during his speech, it was Victoria Atkins, shadow health secretary, that took bad behaviour to another level. Standing at the despatch box, she repeatedly spoke over the environment secretary, breaking the Rules of Order and Decorum in House of Commons Procedure and Practice. The rules state that when a member is addressing the house, “no other Member may interrupt except to raise a question of privilege which has arisen suddenly or to raise a point of order”.

The behaviour was widely criticised by MPs, and eventually, by the deputy speaker, Christopher Chope, who said Atkins had “behaved abominably”. A response later supplied by Atkin’s office said she was merely “trying to get answers”, as if the ends had justified the means.

Hope Victoria Atkins MP is seeing the backlash on her behaving 'abominably' in Parl with many calling her out

Lib Dem MP Helen Morgan
"I witnessed this first-hand. The Conservatives proved the electorate got it right: they are not fit for government" https://t.co/2BSk40ZJey

— BremainInSpain (@BremainInSpain) July 20, 2024

Badenoch, bad enough

In the debate that followed the King’s speech Kemi Badenoch, shadow levelling up secretary, launched an attack on Deputy PM Angela Rayner from the despatch box. In a speech that has been described as “patronising”, “disgraceful” and “unprofessional”, Badenoch told Rayner that she had been “stitched up” and made a “fall guy” by the Labour government. She offered to “hold her hand” at this “very difficult time”, and said she looked forward to telling Rayner “I told you so” when the new government repeated the mistakes of the old one.

I hope Kemi Badenoch becomes the next Tory leader

Why?

Because she’s arrogant and condescending and will put off the majority of Tory voters who are left

That’ll mean Tories will be out of office for at least 10 yrs! Marvellous

Happy Sunday 👍🏼

pic.twitter.com/quoi54mtGn

— Carol Vorderman (@carolvorders) July 21, 2024

The recent behaviour of both Atkins and Badenoch – although hardly out of character – has fuelled speculation that, yet again, their focus is on their own political careers, rather than the needs of their constituents. The fact that they believe this kind of behaviour is going to improve their chances in the race for leadership of the party just proves once more how detached they both are from the wishes and needs of the British people.

Tories lacking leadership material

Despite the drop in electoral support for the right-wing European Research Group – down from 107 to 24 MPs – the candidates for Tory leadership are predominantly from the right/far-right of the party. And despite the fact that moves to the right only damaged their election results, they seem determined to repeat the same mistakes.

For some, that move ever closer to Reform UK Party Limited, has resulted in them abandoning the Conservative Party altogether. Suella Braverman – twice relieved of the position of home secretary – is rumoured to be planning to defect to Reform UK, perhaps having accepted that the role of Tory leader is not within her grasp. She wouldn’t be the first Tory MP to defect to the party (sorry, company), or likely the last.

Tories promise to take their tole as Opposition seriously but so far:
🤞Braverman is said to be on brink of defecting,
😊Badenoch gave a crazy shrill speech
😂Atkins went full on bananas in the Commons and
🕵️‍♀️The party can’t even decide how to hold a leadership contest

— Chris Bryant (@RhonddaBryant) July 20, 2024

At a time when world leaders, and the British public, are welcoming a change of tone and attitude in Westminster, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer is as popular as Boris Johnson ever was, the Tories are still clinging to old, failed ideas.

It was clear during the election that they were fighting the wrong battles. They focused on trying to retain the attention and support of those on the right/far-right while ignoring the much bigger threat from the centre/left, and it cost them dearly.

The often-tetchy Sunak now seems far more comfortable is his new role than in his previous one. When he first appeared in the Commons on the opposite side of the House, he promised the Tories would “fulfil our duties as the loyal opposition, professionally and effectively”. He may have even believed it, or at least hoped that someone, anyone, in his party would take note and adjust their behaviour accordingly. Based on the evidence so far, it seems the Tories are as unfit for opposition as they were for office – and they only have themselves to blame.

Nigel Farage laid blame on Democrats’ rhetoric for Donald Trump’s attempted assassination attempt. Yet, he is culpable in creating a political sphere where violence, incitement and threatening behaviour are commonplace.

A fish rots from the head down

Political violence, threats and incitement are sadly becoming more common in today’s political sphere. Drip fed into our politics for over a decade and driven by our media’s fascination with divisive political players like Farage and Trump.

Incrementally, they and other antagonists went further and further as they pushed the boundaries of everyday political discourse and language. The more outrageous, divisive and hyperbolic they became, the more coverage they got. In turn, the political sphere has become more divided, angry, inflamed, and threatened. All this has been amplified and aided by social media, misinformation, dark money, often foreign, and Russia’s hybrid warfare.

When politicians get away with it, the public follows

The constant scapegoating and blaming of minorities and migrants for all the woes of their countries is deeply concerning to many. Grown-up, sensible debates about migration, primarily fuelled by capitalists’ requirements for constant economic growth, are almost impossible. Many on the more liberal, progressive side of politics feel the language heard from the hard right is dangerous and reminiscent of the demonisation of Jews and other minorities in 1930s Germany. The language does indeed have very similar connotations.

Divisive, fear-driven politics has become mainstream from the right as they have shifted to a type of hard-right populism that only functions around division, fear and wedge issues, whether that be migration, climate change, LGBTQ+ rights, or abortion. This has caused a tremendous amount of fear and anxiety on both sides of the political spectrum for differing reasons and has led to an environment where people are constantly made to feel angry and inflamed. The extremes of this can be seen on social media daily

Farage has often used the language of incitement and political violence

Not known to miss an opportunity for self-promotion, Farage was quickly on the job as he spoke to the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg after the attempt on Trump’s life, saying, “The narrative put out there about Trump, by these liberals that oppose him, is so nasty… it almost encourages this type of behaviour”.

Farage has a very selective memory. He is by far one of the most divisive politicians the UK has ever seen, and he himself has used violent and threatening language on several occasions.

Instead of being shunned by the media, he became one of the most covered people in UK politics. Including being platformed an incredible 36 times on BBC Question Time

In this BBC interview before the Brexit referendum he said that “violence is the next step” if people feel that immigration is not being controlled and that voting doesn’t change anything. He then said it was “difficult to contemplate” it happening in Britain but added, “nothing is impossible”.

"I implore the Left to think very carefully about how they seek to play politics' writes @Nigel_Farage today.

Here he is in 2016 …

"Violence is the next step" pic.twitter.com/bul4a0TBUg

— John O'Connell (@jdpoc) July 14, 2024

Farage is clever with his words. He knows how far to push and when to retract, and this rhetoric is intentional. His words have an aura of wishful thinking, and this is not the only example.

After the Brexit referendum, at an event where people paid to hear him speak, Farage was recorded saying:

He also stated at the same event, “there will be widespread public anger in this country on a scale and in a way we have never seen before”.

“But if they don’t deliver this Brexit that I spent 25 years of my life working for, then I will be forced to don khaki, pick up a rifle and head for the front lines.”

Anything to say, @Nigel_Farage? pic.twitter.com/xA5thFT8wR

— The London Economic (@LondonEconomic) July 15, 2024

In 2019, Farage was investigated by police (not charged) after multiple complaints about his comments in a speech he made in Wales. Talking about his frustrations over Brexit not happening fast enough he referenced the “overpaid pen pushers in Whitehall who are not doing a neutral job” and said “and once Brexit’s done, we’ll take the knife to them. Alright? Had enough of all of it. Had enough of all of it”.

The ‘take the knife’ remark by Farage was made just a month after a civil servant in his 60s was stabbed outside the Home Office. The Judge at the time stated, “This was an unprovoked, serious violent attack on a stranger, apparently on the basis that he worked for the Home Office”.

Police probe Nigel Farage 'take the knife' comment https://t.co/swQwOkvnDj

— BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) September 28, 2019

Threat to the judiciary

In 2016, business owner Gina Miller was the main plaintiff in a case that held the government at the time accountable for its attempts to ride roughshod over the British constitution and parliamentary sovereignty over the triggering of Article 50, which would start the process of leaving the EU. Farage made Brexit all about sovereignty, yet the executive’s moves were anti-democratic and denied parliamentary sovereignty.

Farage, however, wasn’t happy and threatened to lead a crowd of 100,000 protesters to Parliament Square and within earshot of the courthouse while the case was underway. The Welsh government’s top lawyer, Counsel General Mick Antoniw, at the time called for UKIP group leader Neil Hamilton to “disassociate himself from the comments that were made by his acting leader Farage who said they would be leading a march of 100,000 people to the Supreme Court, and that people were so angry that there might well be violence arising as a consequence … That, all I can see, is an attempt to intimidate an independent judiciary.”

The march was crowdfunded but never happened. The judges, however, faced intense backlash.

Sometimes, incitement comes without words

On 16 June 2016, just days before the Brexit referendum, Farage released, and stood in front of, this grossly inappropriate image, which garnered widespread condemnation from the media. It was denounced by left and right-wing politicians alike, and it was reported to the police that it incited racial hatred and breached UK race laws. The photograph used was of migrants crossing the Croatia-Slovenia border in 2015, with the only prominent white person in the picture obscured by a box of text. Many made the connection to images Nazis had used in their programme of fear and propaganda

Just hours later, Jo Cox, a Labour MP who supported inclusion, diversity, and remaining in the EU, was murdered in the street by a far-right terrorist, Thomas Mair, who shot her twice in the head and stabbed her. According to the eyewitness, he did so while saying, “Britain first, keep Britain independent, Britain will always come first”. Finally, he yelled: “This is for Britain.” Police found his room ‘stuffed’ with Nazi memorabilia and multiple links to far-right groups, including Americans.

Farage was unrepentant about the poster.

Take a stand

The assassination attempt on Trump was shocking. No matter your politics, we on all sides must reject violence, particularly political violence. But the fact that we often refer to ‘all sides’ tells us a lot too. There should be no ‘sides’ when it comes to our public servants and leaders. They are there to serve ALL the people, not just those who support them.

The populist far/hard right relies on discourse and rage creation to flourish. It’s all about us vs them. While it is impossible never to get angry and upset with what can often be cruel, deceitful and bigoted rhetoric, it’s up to all of us to reject all forms of threatening or political violence. Let’s try to live by the words of Michelle Obama:

I doubt it will have escaped your notice but there’s an election happening soon in the UK. If the polls are to be believed – and the results across multiple sites would suggest they can – then the Conservatives are about to suffer an almost complete wipeout. Or in the words of polling guru, Professor John Curtice, the results would be the worst ever “by a country mile”.

Tories facing wipeout as new poll suggests they will have just 53 MPs and Rishi Sunak will lose his seathttps://t.co/G94N4dziXZ

— Peter Stefanovic (@PeterStefanovi2) June 20, 2024

Polls apart

In a new poll by Savanta and Electoral Calculus for The Telegraph, Labour are predicted to win 516 seats and a massive 382-seat majority, with the Conservatives and LibDems neck-and-neck on 53 and 50 seats respectively. If that weren’t bad enough, Rishi Sunak is predicted to lose his own seat – a feat never before accomplished by any prime minister at a general election, and quite the personal legacy. Other big names are also at risk of losing their seats, including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and numerous cabinet ministers.

Two other polls released on the same day – by More in Common and YouGov – have the Conservatives on 155 and 108 seats. Better, but not by much. And whichever way you look at it, a disaster for the government on a monumental and historic scale.

The collapse in popularity of the government could be down to any number of factors: the pain and damage of austerity; changing public attitudes to a mis-sold Brexit; cronyism and chronic waste of public money; mishandling of, well, just about everything they’ve touched, or directly down to Sunak and his colleagues. The list is a long one, and it’s still growing.

What’s incredible is conservatives downfall will happen despite the support & constant cheering of Tory supporting media

Brexit & the lurch to hard right that has killed them, yet read the sub head on Kemi. Instead of learning they just keep buckling down. It’s quite something pic.twitter.com/73XkWq7v6X

— BremainInSpain (@BremainInSpain) June 20, 2024

There’s still time…

But, all is not yet lost, it seems.

While the public, the media, and quite probably most of parliament can see the writing on the Conservative wall, Levelling Up Minister Michael Gove has other ideas. According to him, there is still time to stage a comeback and to pull a rabbit out of the hat in extra time. All that’s needed, apparently, is “an opportunity to make these arguments” before “the final whistle”. And some policies. And a magician.

Gove’s arguments, it seems, amount only to warning voters of Labour’s “tax dangers” and their “plans for the future”. In that respect, he would appear to be on the same page as Sunak and many government ministers, in that their election campaign is all about Labour’s plans, not their own. Not to mention the fact that much of the public seem to quite like what Labour are selling.

Former Brexit negotiator Lord Frost, however, does not share Gove’s optimism. The Conservative Party, says Frost, is “hurtling towards a terrible defeat” because the party is not “doing Conservative things”. Frost also warned that Labour would drag Britain back into the “orbit” of Brussels by renegotiating what Keir Starmer described as Boris Johnson and Frost’s “botched” deal. Again, no sign of any ideas or policies of their own, just more criticism of the opposition.

'We're hurtling towards a terrible defeat.'
'People won't vote for the Conservatives because they aren't doing Conservative things.'

Conservative peer Lord David Frost the architect of the disastrous Brexit deal has some chutzpah.

pic.twitter.com/V6C9maY8L0

— Simon Gosden. Esq. #fbpe 3.5% 🇪🇺🐟🇬🇧🏴‍☠️🦠💙 (@g_gosden) March 14, 2024

What Gove, Frost, Sunak et al fail to understand is that hardly anyone trusts them, or believes a word they say anymore. As for suggesting that Labour will increase taxes for the less well off, that’s more than a bit rich coming from the “biggest tax-raising parliament on record” and a bunch of out-of-touch millionaires to boot.

Whether you believe the Conservatives are heading for a wipeout or a comeback, Frost and Gove have something in common – a strong tendency towards delusional thinking that came to a head with Brexit and shows no signs of fading.

The Oxford English definition of ‘delusion’ is “a false belief or judgment about external reality, held despite incontrovertible evidence to the contrary”. There’s plenty of incontrovertible evidence that the Conservatives are going to lose, and lose badly. Those within the party that believe otherwise deserve to be nowhere near positions of power. Thankfully, in two weeks’ time it looks like they won’t be.