The biggest ‘selling point’ of Brexit was the ending of freedom of movement. Its removal was hailed by Priti Patel, Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson and many more as a triumphant victory. This attitude always came across as illogical, considering only the British would lose the automatic right to work, live, love, and retire in 26 countries. However, people did vote to remove this benefit. That brought far-reaching consequences, many of which are still becoming known. When the UK left the EU club, it became a ‘third country’ and it, and its citizens, lost access to the club’s abundant benefits.

The impact of ending freedom of movement

Many British nationals were part-time residents of Spain pre-Brexit, and they have been severely affected by this loss. They had to make difficult decisions as to which country to take up permanent residency in. Much had to be considered to make that choice, such as family situation, financial, work opportunities, taxation. They had to give up their dreams of moving freely between two countries, and the hurt and disillusion that this has caused is genuine and raw to those affected.

The current rules

As of 1 January 2021, the EU legislated that British citizens do not need a visa for short stays of up to 90 days in a rolling 180-day period for tourism purposes. This is the standard length of stay that the EU offers to nationals of eligible third countries, in line with existing EU legislation. It is not a benefit given to all third countries.

Pre-Brexit, many British people would spend four or five consecutive months a year in Spain, particularly those with second homes and the elderly who often spent the winter abroad for financial or health reasons. Lower bills, particularly heating, along with warm winters, were a significant pull. This was not strictly legal then as residency should have been applied for after three consecutive months spent in Spain; however, the rules were not strictly enforced. There was no passport stamping and the authorities turned a blind eye. After all, we were all citizens of the EU.

Brexit removed this benefit. The 90-day rule applies to cumulative stays in the whole of the Schengen Area, not just in each single country, and therefore is quite restrictive. Also, if you spend more than 183 days in Spain each year, legally you must become a tax-paying resident. A fine line to monitor if the rule was extended to 180 in 360 as is being suggested.

Spanish authorities lobby government to change the rule

In the past week or so, some Spanish regional authorities have become vocal on this topic. The press has reported them as having conversations with the Spanish government to extend the 90/180 rule to reflect British citizens’ close connections to Spain, particularly second homeowners and those who have family residing here.

Authorities in the Spanish region of Valencia, which encompasses Benidorm and the Costa del Sol, are actively campaigning to allow Britons to spend more time in the country than the post-Brexit rules dictate.

Valencia’s president, Ximo Puig, has raised the hopes of many by saying he wants to make “Brexit as Brexit-less as possible”, “facilitate the visa situation”, and “correct the restrictions”. This is understandable as some British people used to spend months in Spain pre-Brexit, and the British pound brings a lot to the Spanish economy, particularly in regions with high tourism levels. The worry is that British nationals will no longer buy second properties in Spain, and indeed those that already have them will sell up.

The Alicante provincial president, Carlos Mazon, has also been reported as having meetings with José Pascual Marco, the Spanish ambassador to the UK. He stated, “Britons are the main source of wealth in the Alicante Province”, given the high dependence of the Costa Blanca resorts on tourists from the UK.

The 90/180 rule can’t be changed

This recent media attention has understandably piqued interest from those affected and raised the hopes of many that the rules are about to change. It has created much comment on social media, but there is a lot of misconception, and people will be extremely disappointed.

No EU country has a visa-free option for third country nationals to stay more than 90 days, and that is not going to change any time soon. The 90 in 180-day rule for visa-free access to the Schengen area is an EU law. No country within the European Union has the legal right to change the application of this law; therefore, it is not possible for Spain to automatically give the right to British citizens to stay for more than 90 days in 180.

Currently, there are ways to stay longer than 90 days in 180 in Spain, as there are in all EU countries. You have to apply for the relevant visa to do so. Whether you are looking after a sick relative, need to be in Europe for more than three months for work, study, or require an overstay for other reasons, you can apply for a visa. The process, like all visa applications, is not easy; there are multiple documents required – many needing official translations – police records, proof of healthcare, and proof of being financially able to support yourself, to name just a few. There is, of course, also a cost financially and timewise for doing this and no guarantees your application will be accepted.

What could happen?

In the case of Spain, the Spanish Consulate in London provides information in English on the different visas available. The types of visas offered and the requirements to obtain these visas are a matter for the Spanish government alone to set, so, yes, in theory, the Spanish government could introduce a new type of visa for staying longer than 90 days. They could make it a little easier to obtain or have different requirements, for example proof of a second home. However, this would still have to be applied for through the Spanish Embassy and require checks. It is the only way to implement a change, as a Schengen-level agreement would be necessary to change the current law to allow visa-free stays over 90 days.

We also need to note and consider that the UK government does not generally enter into bilateral agreements which allow visa-free travel.

Brexit’s broken dreams

While there is sympathy for British nationals who have been caught up in these changes due to Brexit, there is also a sense from many of ‘you can’t have your cake and eat it’. Britain voted to become a third country; if the rules changed for them, then other countries would expect the same.

Without European Union-wide legislation changing, the only option for nations that want to allow easier overstays is via a more straightforward visa application process. However, it is implausible that any individual government would not still require evidence to show that a person can support themselves financially and get medical treatment without costing the state at the very least. All this would still need to be proven.

Therefore, while changes may be on their way and are being discussed at the highest levels, these changes will not replace the freedoms British nationals had previously; after all, we have heard it often enough, Brexit does mean Brexit.

Here’s a handy link to a Schengen calculator which helps travellers to calculate their days left in the Schengen Area:

Schengen Visa Calculator – Calculate Your Legal Short-Stay in Europe

I am lucky enough to have dual citizenship. I am British but continue to be European.

No rest till all Brits are able to claim EU citizenship again together with their free movement across the continent.

Build the pro EU community by retweeting, liking and following. #FBPE pic.twitter.com/tPZbCkWwwg

— Emmy van Deurzen☀️🌍 🌼🌹🌳🇪🇺🇫🇷🇳🇱🇬🇧🇺🇸⭐️ (@emmyzen) October 15, 2021

How we lost EU Citizenship

When Brexit negotiations first began freedom of movement was still on the table – at least as far as the EU was concerned. Until, that is, Theresa May got out her red pen and started drawing lines through the Withdrawal Agreement. The people had spoken, apparently, and determined that freedom of movement had to go. The implication was that, in an effort to restrict EU immigration, the free movement of people must come to an end.

The fact that the UK always had the power to restrict immigration – even when it was an EU member – but chose not to was a fact that was conveniently glossed over. What many UK citizens failed to appreciate was that the freedom of movement being removed, was their own.

For UK nationals already living in the EU, the new post-Brexit rules mean that the right to live, study, work, retire in an EU country now only applies to the country in which they are legally resident. The ability to move freely from one EU country to another is no longer an easy option.

One way to regain lost EU citizenship rights is to take up citizenship of your country of residence. It’s not a course of action for the fainthearted, and can be a long, painful, expensive process. It requires a good standard of knowledge of the host country’s history, culture and language. In some cases – as in Spain – it even requires giving up your British citizenship, as Spain does not allow dual nationality.

I spoke to some (former, in some cases) British citizens about their reasons for applying for citizenship of their host country. This is what they had to say.

Becoming German

My grandma fled Berlin in 1938. Having been offered citizenship, I have just been to the German Embassy in London to collect my Certificate of Naturalisation. I am officially Anglo-German. They gave me some Gummibärchen and this lovely badge. Now to choose a German football team. pic.twitter.com/jp7tan9UOG

— Matt Lucas (@RealMattLucas) November 2, 2021

I suspect that many of us would take additional EU citizenship if we could:
Matt Lucas has become a German citizen, a year after he criticised Brexit. The Little Britain star posted a photo of his welcome gift from the German embassy in London.https://t.co/V02EeH2BWD

— Slough for Europe 🇪🇺💙 (@SloughForEU) November 5, 2021

In order to obtain German citizenship you must have lived in the country on a residence permit for at least eight years. British citizens who applied for German citizenship before the end of the Brexit transition period – while still EU citizens – were able to retain their British passport. Now Britons are no longer EU citizens, retention of British citizenship is no longer always an option.

On the morning of the Brexit referendum Dale Alison and her husband made the decision to apply for German citizenship, saying the idea was a ‘no brainer’. Dale has lived in Berlin since 1978, and it had always been her dream to retire to Spain. Dale told me, “not only did we apply for German citizenship as a family, but I found myself helping others through the same bureaucratic process. We are now happily settled in Spain, though our children still live in Germany. They, like us, are free of restrictions to come and go as we please thanks to us all remaining EU citizens”.

John Lewis has only just begun the process of applying for his German citizenship. Although he has gathered all the necessary forms and documents, getting his British birth certificate translated into German took longer than anticipated. John has been working as an IT consultant in Germany since 2007, but until last year, had kept a house in the UK. He has now sold up completely, and “has no intention of ever returning to the UK”. The most important thing, he said, was “to get back my EU citizenship and keep all my European rights”.

In 2018, Chris Atkinson-Price became a dual national in Germany. Having lived in the country for 17 years, she says she had many reasons for applying for citizenship. “The Brexit vote left me feeling betrayed and ashamed of the UK and made me even more grateful to feel European”, she said. “I have friends throughout the EU and want to retain the ability to move nearer to them in the future. My freedom of movement is very important to me. My British passport is now locked away in a safe. I doubt I’ll ever bother to renew it”.

Swapping a British passport for a Spanish one

Brexit sparks surge in Brits applying for Spanish citizenship https://t.co/elb5IJd0cX pic.twitter.com/pn3G5k7XUJ

— The Local Spain (@TheLocalSpain) March 30, 2017

To apply for Spanish citizenship you must have been a legal resident in Spain for at least 10 years, have been born in the country or have a Spanish parent. Spain does not allow dual citizenship, so applicants must be willing to renounce their British passport in favour of a Spanish one.

Helen Johnston, a translator, has started the process of application for Spanish citizenship. As her father is from Northern Ireland, Helen already has Irish citizenship. “However, Spain is my home, so in the end”, Helen told me, “I decided I would prefer all the rights and responsibilities of Spanish citizenship, even if that means renouncing my British citizenship”.

Mother of two Sarah Chambers runs her own business with her Spanish husband while studying law. She said, “The UK has forgotten about the Brits living in Europe”. Having lost her right to vote in UK elections, Sarah is looking forward to being able to vote in Spanish national elections once her citizenship is approved. She added, “I wish to keep my freedom of movement, right to reside, work and study in the European country of my choice”.

Having lived in Spain for most of her life, Lydia Biggie never really considered becoming a Spanish citizen until five years ago. “Brexit finally made me make the move and I only wish I had taken the decision sooner”, she said. “My children and grandchildren were all born in Spain, so I’m looking forward to becoming a European citizen again, like them. I can’t wait to travel with my new Spanish passport”.

A marine scientist, who wished to remain anonymous, was unable to continue working across Europe. His UK-based firm told him that post-Brexit, it was more difficult to employ a Brit than a North African. He told me, “Fortunately, I have Spanish heritage on my mother’s side, which has given me the opportunity to attain Spanish nationality. It has been an extremely long-winded and bureaucratic process, but the last stage – actually getting my Spanish passport – has taken the longest. The Spanish consulate in London has been completely inundated with applications. The idiocy of Brexit has effectively made me redundant and driven me out of the UK in order to earn a living”.

Friends David Eldridge and Lawrence Renaudon Smith, who live in Majorca, are both now Spanish citizens. Lawrence considered applying back in 2003, when he first became eligible, but ruled it out as he did not want to renounce his British citizenship. After the Brexit referendum, he decided that was a price worth paying “for the advantages and convenience of being an EU citizen”. He was unable to vote in the referendum and said,

David has only just received confirmation that his application has been successful. He started the process following the 2019 general election “when it was clear that Brexit was going to happen”. He booked the necessary tests, sent off his birth certificate with a Spanish translation, as his own way of “taking back control”. The process was long, and delayed by Covid, but David is now looking forward to his formal pledge of allegiance. He is not, however, looking forward to the tiresome process of updating his details with every Spanish institution from the tax office to the local council, from the social security office to the Direccion General de Traffico (DGT), the Spanish body responsible for issuing driving licences. He believes all the hassle will be worth it though as, “I’ll be European again and be able to vote in Spanish elections”.

Thank EU

Exercising her free movement rights, translator Zoe Adams Green moved from Spain to Italy to marry her Italian partner in 2018. She passed the language test, but Covid made it difficult to obtain the three criminal checks needed, slowing down the application process. Zoe said she is pleased that Italy allows dual citizenship, but said, “if push had come to shove, I’d have reluctantly renounced my British citizenship. It’s a no brainer, really – the right to live and work in a single country or the right to live and work in 27 countries”.

Laura Shields never seriously considered taking Belgian nationality before Brexit, but the referendum “crystallised that decision for me”, she said. “It wasn’t just about protecting my free movement rights (which I rely on for work) but also about positively choosing Belgium. Plus, I wanted to vote, and I wanted my son to have the same European opportunities as me.” Laura says she feels “very lucky that the process went smoothly. Given how destabilising the past six years have been, having Belgian nationality is something I’m grateful for every day. I can’t imagine how stressful it must have been for other people who didn’t have the same options”.

Although Suzanne Davis lives in Spain, she chose not to apply for Spanish citizenship as she wanted to retain her British passport. She said, “After two years, a lot of paperwork and several trips to the embassy in Madrid, I have managed to secure my Slovak nationality, through my mother”. Her two children are eagerly awaiting the arrival of their Slovak passports, as they “want to keep their options open” and may wish to study or work elsewhere in the EU or the UK in the future.

The luck of the Irish

By far the simplest way for UK nationals to retain their prized EU citizenship is by applying for an Irish passport. Anyone born in Northern Ireland or with an Irish parent or grandparent is eligible, and it’s not just Brits abroad that are applying. According to Irish Foreign Affairs Minister, Simon Coveney, 422,000 British citizens in the UK alone applied for an Irish passport between 2016 and 2020. That compares to an average of around 55,000 per annum for the two years prior to the Brexit referendum.

Journalist Sarah Farrell has lived in Spain for 16 years and is now the proud owner of an Irish passport. Sarah said, “I have now spent a lot of time and money getting back the rights I enjoyed before Brexit. I am just so sorry that Brits will not be able to have the same freedom to travel and work in the future”.

Claire McNally, who comes from Scotland but lives in Brussels with her Belgian husband, says she feels much more secure now she has Irish citizenship. Apart from any potential concerns regarding employment, Claire hated the label of third country national and the  inferior status that implied. She told me, “I didn’t want to have to stand in a different queue from my husband and kids at passport control when travelling. I also so wanted to remain an EU citizen and enjoy all the benefits that go with that”. Claire now has a new Belgian ID card that identifies her as Irish and confers on her full EU citizenship rights.

A Northern Irish teacher, who wished to remain anonymous, moved to Galicia in northern Spain in 2015. He described his Irish passport as an “upgrade”, though he admitted he didn’t at first feel comfortable about making the application as it felt “a bit like cheating”. He added, “In 2019, I finally came to accept the way things were going with Brexit and decided to act. Now I just feel very fortunate that this was an avenue open to me that could make a bad situation easier. I don’t think I will bother to renew my British passport when it expires as I can’t see any value in it anymore”.

Debbie Williams MBE is no stranger to moving around Europe. Originally from Wales, Debbie and her family now live in Spain, having previously been residents of Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. She told me:

Debbie said her time in HM forces gave her a unique perspective on “Britishness” and that Brexit has “adversely affected my sense of home, identity and belonging”. Thankfully, due to her Irish heritage, she will soon be the proud owner of an Irish passport and a “new identity” which she will “cherish and be proud of”.

Regardless of your opinions on Brexit, many of us took the benefits of EU membership and the associated rights of being an EU citizen for granted. If we were aware of the advantages at all, we may have been ignorant of who we had to thank for our good fortune and freedoms.

They say you never really appreciate the value of something until you’ve lost it. That is certainly true of the freedom to live, love, work, study and retire in any one of 27 distinct and wonderful countries. We will never take that freedom for granted again. I sincerely hope, one day, that we will all regain the rights we have lost. In the meantime, British citizens at home and abroad will do whatever it takes to be full European citizens again – including the father of the prime minister.

Johnson's ancestors are Frenchhttps://t.co/wWdETivoqQ

— Russell England (@RussellEngland) October 30, 2021

Another West England Bylines writer, Philip Cole, who is the former head of English translation at the European Parliament, found the process of applying for Luxembourgish citizenship relatively straightforward. British citizens need to have become legally resident in the Grand Duchy before 31.12.2020. “I became legally resident in October last year”, says Philip. “You need five years’ residence, but the fifth year has to be the year up to the point when you apply for citizenship”. Philip was previously resident in the Grand Duchy from 1987 to 2015. “After the referendum – we won in Cheltenham with 56% of the vote – I was seriously depressed at the loss of my European identity. Hence the move back to Luxembourg”. In addition to the residence requirement he has to do 24 hours of Luxembourgish language (not exactly a hardship if you know German), although he doesn’t need to pass a test because of his previous lengthy period of residence. Luxembourg allows dual citizenship.

Ed: If you have a story to tell about EU Citizenship, we’d love to hear from you. Just email editor@westenglandbylines.co.uk.

Five years on from the referendum, and two years on from the general election, is Labour’s attitude to Brexit any clearer? If the slogan ‘Make Brexit Work’ is anything to go by, then perhaps not.

I have watched with interest the discussions on social media as to the rights and wrongs of the current Labour position. I admit to having been swayed in both directions at different times. Commentators that I trust on Brexit-related topics are not all of a like mind. Also, it would seem that I’m not alone in my confusion as to what would be the best course of action for the country, or indeed for the Labour party itself.

OK, I admit it. I'm going back & forth re Labour & Brexit.
There are strong, reliable voices I trust on both sides of the argument about whether Labour should "make Brexit work" & I'm confused on the best course of action. What I do know for sure is, we must #GTTO & #JohnsonOut

— Sue Wilson (@Suewilson91) November 8, 2021

Make Brexit Work

It is certainly true that Labour have been in dire need of a good slogan for some time. A good three-word slogan has the power to capture the public imagination, even one as equivocal as Theresa May’s ‘Brexit means Brexit’. Boris Johnson won an election on the back of ‘Get Brexit Done’, and let’s not forget the power and effectiveness of the ‘Take Back Control’ mantra.

Whether the meaning behind these slogans was clear or not, they were certainly effective. In light of former Brexit slogan successes, then ‘Make Brexit Work’ sounds a perfectly reasonable addition. The issue, though, is what on earth does it mean and is it the right approach in the face of what many see as Brexit carnage?

In favour of slogan ambiguity

The fact that the Labour slogan, like Labour policy on Brexit, is ambiguous is one of the reasons it has support. Many believe that Labour are right to be cautious when mentioning Brexit. They should focus on winning back the lost red-wall seats, whose Leave-voting supporters left in droves in support of Johnson. Brexit has happened, and no good can come from dwelling on past lost battles, they say. Better to focus on other ways to defeat this government – over corruption, levelling-up, the NHS, etc.

Certainly, we have seen a more passionate, angry Keir Starmer on his return to the House of Commons this week. Not only did he call out the prime minister’s appalling handling of the Owen Paterson affair, and his cowardice in failing to attend the debate on parliamentary standards, but Brexit got a look in too. As rumours increased that the UK is about to take the ‘nuclear’ option and trigger article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol, Starmer accused Johnson of picking fights with the EU to distract from various scandals.

OK, I'm really struggling with the uproar over @Keir_Starmer saying we need to #MakeBrexitWork.#Brexit has happened. There is no magic wand we can wave to make it simply vanish in a puff of smoke. We can't just return to 2016 and all live happily ever after…

1/ pic.twitter.com/ZCvM8JfnPy

— Emma 3.5%💙🧡🎓😷🇩🇰🇬🇧🇪🇺 (@MonkEmma) November 8, 2021

There is also speculation that the government plans to fight the next election on Brexit. Labour would rather focus their efforts in other areas than have the next election be another Brexit battle – one that perhaps they could not hope to win.

Political commentator Nick Tolhurst argues that the ‘Make Brexit Work’ slogan “reminds voters that Brexit isn’t working”. He describes politics as a “community bus” not a “personal limousine”. He goes on to explain, “The bus gets you nearer where you want to be. But some Remainers are refusing to board it because they are waiting for a super fast limousine that isn’t coming”.

The genius of the “Make Brexit Work” line is that it constantly reminds voters that ➡️

Brexit isn’t working…

..without attacking voters decisions 5 years ago or looking like you just want to cancel it now.

If you haven’t got this you don’t really get how politics works. https://t.co/rq0FJnXSYS

— Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 (@nicktolhurst) November 8, 2021

Making Brexit work, won’t work

Lord Andrew Adonis is not exactly renowned for being a fan of Starmer in general, or of Starmer’s Brexit policies in particular. It’s no surprise, therefore, that he has been critical of the ‘Make Brexit Work’ message. As well as tweeting “Well that can’t be done”, he shared a photo suggesting that Starmer was merely a reflection of Johnson. 

Scottish National Party MSP Angus MacNeil responded to the slogan by citing the economic damage of Brexit. He tweeted:

Brexit can't work … It is economically damaging ..twice as bad as the pandemic or the global crash of 2008.
Anyone promising to make brexit work are simply telling lies.

— Angus B MacNeil MP (@AngusMacNeilSNP) November 8, 2021

Political activist Femi Oluwole, who co-founded the pro-EU campaign group Our Future Our Choice, explained his take on why Brexit won’t work in a 50-second video, making five specific points:

• Trade is all about geography – the closer your trading partners, the better
• The biggest barriers to trade are differing regulations between trade partners
• It is in UK’s interests to have similar laws to the EU
• As non-EU members, the UK has no say in EU laws – so much for taking back control!
• The choice is therefore between EU laws or making ourselves poorer

This is the problem with Keir Starmer saying "Make Brexit Work":

Everything he would have to do to limit the damage of Brexit, is the opposite of what Leave voters wanted.
So that line just adds to the lie that Brexit can ever be a success in the eyes of those who wanted it. pic.twitter.com/7Tibwiedcv

— Femi (@Femi_Sorry) November 8, 2021

The problem with ‘Make Brexit Work’, he said, is that everything required to limit the damage caused by Brexit would result in the opposite of what Leave voters actually wanted in the first place. So, regardless of whether Remainers would be happy with Starmer’s proposals, Leavers certainly wouldn’t be.

Labour’s slogan should be better than this

Of course, the arguments for and against the ‘Make Brexit Work’ slogan are not all about the policy itself. While the basic principle of the proposal might be acceptable, the slogan itself is an issue. As ‘woke and proud’ Richard Bentall says, it alienates Remainers. While pro-Europeans are no strangers to feeling left out – not least by Labour – they do make up the vast majority of Labour supporters.

'Make Brexit work' is a crap slogan because it alienates remainers. @UKLabour needs a slogan that is acceptable to the majority in both camps, implies that the current Brexit isn't working, but doesn't imply rejoin.

My first stab: A new deal with Europe. https://t.co/gIVWNhAULY

— Richard Bentall #FBPE #FBPA Woke and proud! (@RichardBentall) November 8, 2021

A slogan that further alienates Remain-supporting Labour voters who have been hoping for better representation, for stronger arguments, and for Labour to take a stand and call out what they see as the Brexit disaster, is probably not a wise choice. Since it risks appearing to make no sense as we increasingly hear about economic damage and businesses going under – or moving abroad – as a result of Brexit, it’s likely to be seen as another frustrating swerve on the part of the opposition.

Many are still confused about the Labour message, and its validity. Whatever the best course of action for the party, they are no doubt firmly focused on the main goal – to ‘get the Tories out’. Whether they can do that with the promise of making Brexit work, and without making cross-party alliances ahead of the next election, is another matter altogether.

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 36% (-)
CON: 35% (-4)
GRN: 11% (+5)
LDEM: 9% (-)

via @IpsosMORI, 29 Oct – 04 Nov
Chgs. w/ Sephttps://t.co/uUEQTNgoGf

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) November 8, 2021

Recent polls have shown a shift in public opinion, even before the latest sleaze and mismanagement have been completely taken into account in the numbers. The always-dubious attractions of Johnson are no longer enough to satisfy many of his followers. Johnson has proved, once too often, that he doesn’t care, he doesn’t do detail, and that he doesn’t abide by the rules. Starmer, by contrast, is growing in stature, and is generally regarded as an honest broker, if, at times, a dull one.

Whatever the rights and wrongs of Labour’s position on Brexit, let’s hope they’ve got it right.

The European parliament, the Council, and the European Commission have committed to listening to Europeans and following up on the recommendations made within their sphere of competencies. Topics are unlimited and all will be assessed. Those with the most engagement will be taken forward.

Conference on the future of Europe: who can take part?

Everyone can take part. European, national, local government, and regional authorities, private groups, and individuals can organise events and contribute ideas via the digital platform. Every topic will be recorded, digitalised, monitored and published throughout the conference. These ideas will then feed into the European citizens’ panels and plenaries. Opinions expressed during the conference events will result in concrete recommendations for EU action.

This consultation is not just for European Union citizens. British citizens can also get involved and are very much encouraged to do so. Still, unsurprisingly, the British government is the only government that has not engaged or encouraged its citizens to engage in the process. It would rather cancel Europe and pretend it did not exist. Yet it does, and it is hugely influential around the world.

Future EU policy in many areas will take effect whether Britain is a member or not. The United Kingdom may have chosen to leave the EU, but is still its closest neighbour and ‘in Europe’. How would the people of Britain feel about an EU army, for example, reduced fishing quotas, or financial industry reforms, banning chemicals in foods and farming that the UK may use?

For these reasons, UK citizens should be engaging. By inviting them to do so, the EU shows its deep investment in the rights of the individual and democratic processes.

Conference set set-up

Citizen panels

There will be four panels of 200 citizens in each, all randomly selected to ensure they represent the EU’s diversity. This includes geographic origin (nationality and urban/rural), gender, age, socioeconomic background, and level of education. At least one female and one male citizen per member state is part of each panel. The plenary will include 20 representatives from each Panel. A third of each panel will comprise young people (age 16–25).

In its efforts to engage young people, a European youth event was created in the form of EYE2021, which took place 8–9 October 2021. It brought together 10,000 young people (18–30 years old) online and in Strasbourg, to shape and share their ideas for the future of Europe. Many other events are ongoing and planned.

The plenary

The plenary will discuss the proposals made by the citizens’ panels. Popular ideas from the digital platform are to be adopted and included in the final report prepared by the conference executive board and addressed to the European parliament, Council and European Commission. You can see its make-up here.

Reports are compiled throughout the conference that give an overview and provide analysis of contributions on the platform. The conference plenary includes nine working groups dedicated to the following topics:

Climate change and the environment
Health
A more robust economy, social justice, and jobs
EU in the world
Values and rights, the rule of law, security
Digital transformation
European democracy
Migration
Education, culture, youth, and sport
The executive board

The executive board is responsible for taking decisions by consensus regarding the conference, its processes, and events, overseeing the conference, and preparing the meetings of the conference plenary including acquiring and following up on citizens’ input. It reports regularly to the joint presidency, which the three institutions co-chair. Mr Guy Verhofstadt, member of the European parliament, Mr Gašper Dovžan, state secretary for EU Affairs for the Slovenian council presidency and Ms Dubravka Šuica, vice-president of the European Commission in charge of democracy and demography.

The secretariat

The common secretariat includes officials representing the three EU institutions equally. It assists the work of the executive board, its representatives, and observers of the executive board, ensuring proper function, coordination, and conduct. The co-heads of the common secretariat shall attend all meetings of the executive board.

Conference timeline

The joint declaration for the conference was signed in March 2021 and the official kick-off date was 9 May 2021, Europe Day. It is scheduled to end in June 2022. However, there is already talk underway of extending the consultation process as it is so vast in its construct, ideas and goals.

Democracy in action

The European parliament, the Council, and the European Commission have vowed to listen to Europeans. The conference puts citizens at the heart of this process. No matter where you are from or what you do, this is an opportunity like no other to get involved and have a say on the challenges ahead, identify priorities, and help shape the future of the EU.

After the pandemic and Brexit, it is a chance for institutions and citizens to think hard about what direction we want the Union to travel in. It is a huge opportunity to shape European law, security, sustainability, inclusivity, health, and more. It comes from the most important European values: human rights and liberal democracy, where the individual’s rights are paramount and where everyone deserves to be treated fairly and equally. Surely, it’s not only EU citizens who are interested in these values.

Register on the digital platform and start getting involved.

On 3 October, the Mirror got the ball rolling with an article entitled, “Brit expats ‘leaving  Spain in droves’ as retirees abandon Costa del Sol after Brexit”. The next day, an Evening Standard headline read, “Retired British expats ‘abandon Spain in droves’”, followed one day later by the Daily Express with, “Expats leaving Spain in DROVES: Retired Brits abandon Costa del Sol”. You might have noticed a theme, and a common use of language, suggesting that they all got their material from the same source. As it turns out, that source was a single estate agent in Fuengirola, who claimed that many retired Brits were now selling up.

When these stories first appeared, I asked Bremain in Spain’s 6000+ members to comment. As our members are spread all over Spain and its islands, I was curious to hear of members’ personal experiences of British neighbours moving back to the UK. However, we were not able to find any examples of Brits moving away – rather, any migration was in the opposite direction. The Brits were – and are – still moving to Spain.

The story from Spain

It was not just Bremain that was questioning the UK media stories. English-language Spanish newspapers were also asking the same question. Mark Stucklin, a leading authority on Spanish property sales, told the Olive Press that there was no evidence of Brits “leaving in droves”. He said, “It’s completely anecdotal, there is nothing to suggest this is true”. He went on to say the “Brits are still the biggest buyers among any nationality”.

ANALYSIS: Are Brits really leaving Spain in droves because of Brexit? https://t.co/oLizfKToCN @costablancaop

— Costa Blanca Olive Press (@costablancaop) October 7, 2021

The Local Spain also investigated UK media claims, and contacted a numbers of estate agents and experts who all told a very different story. One Marbella-based estate agent said the British were still buying and selling but “there’s no mass exodus”. Engel Voeker, an estate agent from Benidorm, said, “there’s not a lot of people from England selling their homes,” adding that the situation was largely “the same as before Brexit and Covid.”

Although purchasing figures are slightly down overall post Brexit, the Provia agency in Alicante reported 600 sales to British buyers in the second quarter of 2021. Brits still represent the largest group of foreign buyers, despite the added difficulties and costs of buying property in Spain post Brexit.

Even Spanish TV had latched on to this story. They approached me directly in the hope of finding examples of Brits selling up and leaving Spain. In the end, they dropped the story when it became clear there was no evidence to support the claim of Brits leaving the country

The Brexit Effect

In 2020, the number of British residents in Spain rose by 22,000, ending the year on 381,448, according to the Spanish Ministry of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration (MISSM). That number…… had been increasingly steadily, with 90,000 being added since the Brexit referendum in June 2016.

For many, it was a case of expediting existing plans of a future move to Spain, in order to emigrate under existing EU rules. For others, it was a last-minute decision to get out of the UK while the going was good, or bad, as the case may be.

One significant effect of Brexit, affecting second-home owners, is the 90-day rule. As third country nationals, they are only allowed to stay for 90 days out of any 180-day period. The “swallows” that like to spend winter in the sun can no longer stay for more than three months at a time – previously they might have spent four to six months over-wintering in Spain. Of this group, there are a few selling up – now Brexit has moved the goalposts – but not in any significant numbers, and they were not counted in the residency figures anyway.

Brexit has now forced many British citizens in Spain to decide, once and for all, which country they wish to call home. For most of us, that was an easy decision to make – it’s Spain, and Europe, all the way. We know which side our ‘pan’ is buttered on.

Even though the number of pensioners in Spain has risen recently to 140,000 – 37% of the total – many are on low incomes, especially those on a British state pension. While some pensioners choose to return to the UK late in life, those numbers haven’t changed. Returning to the UK to spend your final years close to family has nothing to do with Covid or Brexit, just with growing old and having changing needs.

What is different about the recent spate of articles about “expats”, is the lackadaisical approach. The same story, to all intents and purposes, has been repeated without any effort, it would seem, at verifying the facts or finding alternative sources.

With any election, the time of the year can be a significant factor, as turnout can be appreciably affected by the weather. A cabinet source recently told The Mirror, “Labour struggles to get their people out more than we do which gives us an advantage”. However, there are many other factors to be considered, especially in the wake of Brexit and the pandemic.

Fixed Term Parliament Act

The reason the government can even consider holding the next election before 2024 is due to the repealing of the Fixed Term Parliament Act. In March 2021, a joint committee of MPs and peers concluded that the act was “flawed and would require major amendment even if it were to be retained”.

The government’s intention was clear, the committee said – “to return to the system in place before the 2011 Act”. Committee chair, Lord McLoughlin said the “bill means the Monarch may grant a general election on the request of the prime minister of the day”. The dissolution and calling of parliament bill is currently at second reading stage in the House of Lords. It is making swift progress towards giving the government the freedom to call an election when it sees fit.

Boundary changes

According to the Boundary Commission for England, revised proposals on boundary changes will be published, and a four-week consultation process will be conducted “late 2022”. A final report, including recommendations, will be published in June 2023.

One school of thought is that the government will wait until after the boundary changes come into effect. The reason being that, if the 2019 election had been conducted under the new boundary arrangements, with every voter voting the same way, the Conservative Party would have gained 15 seats, and Labour would have lost a further nine. Even if voting patterns were to change, the Financial Times concluded that the government would gain ten new seats following boundary adjustments.

However, others have argued that the government will call an election before the changes come into effect while existing boundaries remain. Crestview Strategy’s vice president, Nicholas Varley, argued that to call an election after the boundary changes would be “an act of lunacy” on the government’s part. He argued that it takes years for MPs to “build their reputation with local voters and a change in boundaries would mean years of hard work by MPs in this parliament are deemed worthless”.

“What will be causing sleepless nights is the idea that no one in the campaign team at Conservative Central Office, or even Conservative Members of Parliament themselves, can be certain of which voters will be voting in which constituency in an impending general election. If you do not know who your electorate is how can you run a campaign? And, we aren’t just talking about not knowing the electorate in a handful of constituencies, we are talking about 90 percent of constituencies looking different.”

The Brexit effect

Brexit could be a significant factor in any decision re the timing of the next election, and the government would need to be looking in two directions simultaneously. Firstly, there’s the damage already being caused by Brexit, and we haven’t even seen the worst of that yet.

Any perceived Brexit bounce that may have come from the government getting Brexit ‘done’ has surely now dissipated. If the election was to come too soon, the issues of supply chain problems, fuel shortages, empty shelves, lack of drivers, etc. etc. will be fresh in the public memory. Even if they believe the government line that those issues are due to covid, not Brexit, it’s same problem – the government has mishandled both in spectacular fashion.

Secondly, there’s the future of Brexit – the ongoing negotiations and severely troubled relationship with the EU. Not only is Brexit not done, but if the result of the latest UK posturing results in a trade war, then the picture could look considerably worse. In which case, a delay might be the best course of action for the government, in order to put as much space between themselves and the damage as possible.

That’s before they even factor in the renegotiations that are due to take place in 2025 when the trade and co-operation agreement is up for review. Assuming, of course, that it hasn’t been torn up altogether by then.

Then there are the promised Brexit benefits that have failed to materialise. The much-heralded new deal with Australia has not, as previously suggested, been signed sealed and delivered. Even the rollover EU deals are proving problematic, as the devil in the detail was overlooked. The uplands are not looking so sunny

… and then there’s covid

With regard to covid, a number of factors must surely be considered. Firstly, any capital the government may have gained from the so-called vaccine bounce has almost certainly now been lost. Then there’s the forthcoming covid inquiry that will likely reveal significant government mistakes – including many that could have been avoided and saved lives. The billions spent – in many cases wasted – will not go unnoticed, and again, the government may well want to put some distance between the fallout and the next public vote.

As for the current state of play, the UK is falling behind its neighbours in tackling covid. Despite appearances to the contrary in some quarters, covid has not gone away. The number of new cases is growing out of all proportion to similar countries, with daily case levels dangerously close to 50,000. Add in all those bereaved families and that’s a lot of people with a huge axe to grind, not even mentioning those still waiting for any sign of ‘levelling up’.

The view from Westminster

The recent government reshuffle has only added to speculation in Westminster that the PM would call an early election. However, when asked recently to comment on the possibility of a 2023 election, Conservative Party chair Oliver Dowden refused to be drawn. He recently told Sky News, “The PM has told me to make sure that the Conservative Party machine is ready to go for an election whenever it comes”. He added, “It’s not my job to call an election. We know full well that the usual electoral cycle would take us through to 2024 but that’s entirely up to the prime minister”.

In response, government figures played down Dowden’s comments, telling The Times that Boris Johnson would be more likely to wait until 2024 when the next general election is officially due.

As for the opposition, Labour strategists are increasingly considering the possibility that Johnson might even go for an election as early as spring next year. The thinking being that the government will want to act before the tax rise of businesses and workers – aimed at providing additional funding for the NHS – comes into play in April 2022.

At the recent Labour Party conference, the shadow foreign secretary, Lisa Nandy, said the party was ready for an expected election in 2023. “We could be in power in 18-months’ time. Never believe it’s not possible”.

What do the punters say?

Although the odds vary, all gambling sites agree that an early election is becoming increasingly more likely. Smarkets betting exchange said, “The chances of it being held in 2023 have continued to rise, now up to around 38 percent and that seems to make a lot of sense”.

The odds on a 2024 (or later) election range from Oddschecker on 4/7 (a 63 percent probability) to Gambling.com on 3/10 (a 77 percent probability). The odds on a 2023 election range from Oddschecker on 6/5 (a 45 percent probability) to Gambling.com on 7/2 (a 28 percent probability).

With the UK paying off the pandemic deficit, Brexit damage becoming more obvious and the impact of boundary changes, there is much to consider when making this decision. Johnson has already made it clear he wants to serve as PM longer than Thatcher. Of course, that decision will not just be down to the voting public, but also down to his own party. Trust is at an all-time low and needs to be earned. Recent events have opened the public’s eyes to the lies, the cronyism and the waste of life and taxpayers’ money.

In 2023–2024, Britain will hit record borrowing according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Resolution Foundation. Both organisations predict that ahead of the next election, there will be enormous pressure on the government to balance the books.

So, from wherever you are standing, the government has some major decisions to make about whether it will be viewed more kindly sooner, or later. An election in 2023? I wouldn’t put my money on it just yet. But then I wouldn’t bet against it either!

Definitely not so he can pretend there's been better growth in the economy next year & use that to put in tax cuts in the Autumn 2022 budget, in case of an election in 2023.

Definitely not.

They'd never play politics with the economy.
They're a 'safe pair of hands' after all…

— (Social) Liberal Leigh🕷️🇪🇺🇬🇧 #FBPE #FBPPR 🔶 (@Liberal_Leigh) October 16, 2021