Are there enough Remain voters living in the EU to affect the election result?

Are there enough Remain voters living in the EU to affect the election result?

Is there a strong enough Remain contingency abroad to swing the General Election?

The answer is probably that no-one knows for sure.

Certainly there are plenty of potential voters beyond Britain’s shores – by one estimate 1.2 million – though after decades of freedom of movement across the continent, figures are necessarily imprecise.

And there is not much doubt that there is a Remain majority among them, especially among those who live permanently abroad rather than spending part of the year in holiday homes.

Few will be more affected by Brexit that Britons living abroad, with uncertainty now hanging over their residents’ rights, their pensions and access to health care.

So it is reasonably to expect that many will be highly motivated to vote for Remain supporting candidates on December 12th.

In Southern Spain you will find the greatest concentration of British immigrants anywhere in the EU.

There are around 300,000 or so officially, possibly as many again living unofficially in Spain.

Many long-term residents have lost the right to vote in UK elections after 15 years abroad, but many more haven’t, and those we spoke to this week are determined their voices will be heard.

Everyone is talking about tactical voting this election, but I’ll wager nowhere more so than on the Costa del Sol.

Campaigning groups like Bremain in Spain are helping with advice and encouragement about how to vote in home constituencies to have the most effect.

Traditional tribal loyalties seem to have broken down almost completely.

Even the regional head of Conservative Abroad admitted that it was difficult to keep Remainer Conservatives from deserting the party this time.

We found life-long Conservatives holding their noses and voting for Corbyn or Swinson if it will help a Remain candidate keep a Tory out.

Labour and Lib Dems, even paid up party members, told us they were quite willing to lend their votes as necessary to have the greatest impact against Boris Johnson.

The votes cast abroad may be spread too thinly across too many constituencies to have a real impact, but there may be some super-tight marginals where they can swing the seat on election night.

And if this election is going to be close – a big ‘if’ admittedly – then the result in just a few seats may be all it takes to change the occupier in Downing Street.

Taken from ITV News webpage

 

Sue Wilson Writes: New poll shows the people must get another say on Brexit

Sue Wilson Writes: New poll shows the people must get another say on Brexit

Sue speaking at the EUnite eventFor the last three years, politicians of all variations have been telling us what the British public wants, and what we voted for back in June 2016.

I’ve no idea how they can possibly know what we want, when they still can’t tell us how Brexit will look and are terrified of repeating the important question, in a second referendum.

In the case of remain voters, the UK government is probably correct in assuming that we did know what we wanted. We chose the status quo and voted to keep the benefits and rights we enjoy as EU citizens, even if we didn’t fully appreciate what we might lose.

It’s another matter when the government and pro-Brexit politicians claim to have had magic vision that enabled them to see into the minds of leave voters three years ago. All these voters elected to leave the EU, but the types of Brexit they envisaged were varied, from the softest Brexit (“you’ll barely notice the difference”), to the hardest WTO-terms Brexit. Did anyone even know what a soft or hard Brexit was at that stage? We were simply told it would be the easiest deal in history, and that Britain would enjoy a glorious future.

It is noticeable that many politicians, including Conservative party leadership candidates, have stopped repeating the well-worn mantras of 2016. Leave campaigners, such as Nigel Farage and MEP Daniel Hannan, stated back then that Brexit didn’t mean leaving the single market. Farage now sings a different song and is advocating the most damaging of Brexits – leaving with no deal at all.

Regardless of how leave voters pictured Brexit, they won’t all have the same vision now. Today, we know considerably more about what type of Brexit is possible and the implications for the British economy and citizens. Even with that knowledge, nothing is certain, with parliament failing to agree on the best way forward.

Amid the uncertainty, and the fear and anxiety experienced by Brits living in the EU, it’s important to consider how we feel now. We mustn’t make the same mistake as the British government and believe that one snapshot in time is the only moment worth considering.

On Friday 7th June, the results of an extensive new Brexit survey were published by YouGov. Many polls have aimed to establish if the British public has changed its mind, and whether the vote would go the same way in a second referendum.

The new survey sought to look deeper by examining respondents’ first, second and last choices and the strength of their opinions on each option. Previous assumptions, regardless of the type of Brexit, were that leave supporters wanted out of the EU more than remain supporters wanted to stay. According to this survey, the opposite is true.

Participants were given a choice between the Withdrawal Agreement (Theresa May’s negotiated deal), a softer Brexit, a no-deal Brexit, or staying in the EU. Each respondent listed the options in order of preference and weighted each one depending on whether they preferred it “a bit”, “a fair amount” or “a lot” more than other options. This weighting was an important factor in accurately gauging levels of support for the options, and to establish that a second-choice compromise would likely displease both sides equally.


CYouGov survery results. Chart by New Statesman

The analysis revealed that the majority of remainers would prefer staying in the EU significantly more than any other option and would, therefore, be unhappy with any other outcome. Leavers showed a strong first preference for exiting the EU, although with varied first choices. Many felt so negatively about any other Brexit option that 24% said they would prefer to remain than see their second choice implemented.

So, whichever Brexit course of action the government might choose, as well as making remain voters unhappy, it would upset many leave voters too.

It has been a while since we heard the over-used phrase, “the will of the people”, to justify a course of action that would please hardly anyone. The next resident of No. 10 would be well advised to listen to what the country is now saying or find their reign as Prime Minister the shortest in history.

If they are unsure what the country now wants, they really need to put the question back to the British people!

Sue’s article is from The Local

Sue Wilson Writes: Why Brits in Spain should care about the EU elections

Sue Wilson Writes: Why Brits in Spain should care about the EU elections

Sue WilsonBefore last week’s local elections in England and Northern Ireland, the Conservatives were preparing themselves for a big defeat. Most forecasts suggested a loss of around 800 seats, with the gloomiest predictions suggesting 1,000.

When the final scores were known, the humiliating loss of Conservative seats totalled 1,334, with the control of 45 councils lost. Prime Minister, Theresa May, responded by saying that the government realised the local elections were “going to be particularly challenging” and that Brexit was “an added dimension”.

Traditionally, mid-term local elections are an occasion when the public expresses some dissatisfaction with the incumbent government. At such times, you would expect the opposition party to do well at the government’s expense. However, despite the government’s terrible performance, the Labour party did not capitalise – rather than gain seats as expected, it lost control of five councils and 82 council seats.

The big winners were the Liberal Democrats, gaining 703 seats, and the Green Party, gaining 194. Despite the public voting in significant numbers to reject the main parties in favour of anti-Brexit parties, both Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn seem determined to plough on with Brexit regardless.

Having witnessed the most humiliating government defeat in a quarter of a century, Theresa May clearly remains deaf to the voices of the British public and the many calls for her resignation. If the lost Tory votes had been gained by pro-Brexit candidates, and not anti-Brexit parties, May would be justified in claiming that the public wants the government “to get on and sort Brexit out”. However, this was far from the reality.

Jeremy Corbyn’s interpretation of events was also surprising, given the prevailing results. He claimed the results were “very, very clear” and that “a deal has to be done”.

Cross-party talks continue between Labour and the Conservatives to seek agreement on the Brexit deal. Last week, before the election results were known, May imposed a deadline – the middle of this week – on the cross-party negotiations. Despite reports that the talks are “positive and productive”, both sides accuse the other of unwillingness to compromise, so it’s difficult to see how a breakthrough could be made anytime soon.

At least the government has dropped its pretense that the UK’s participation in the European Elections can be avoided. However, May is still hopeful of striking a deal by the end of June, to prevent British MEPs taking their seats in the new European parliament on 2 July. It’s questionable what could be agreed by the end of June that couldn’t be agreed by the end of April or May.

The local election results may reflect the current voting preferences of the British public, but only provide a partial view. The elections only covered councils in certain parts of the UK and excluded some Remain strongholds, such as London and Scotland. Had those areas been involved, the results would probably be even more pro-European. 

Another significant factor was the limited selection of parties available – especially the absence of Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, which is currently topping the polls in the contest for Europe. The new Change.UK party (formerly the Independent Group) is also fielding many MEP candidates, but did not participate in the local elections.

Brits in Spain and throughout the UK couldn’t participate in the local elections but we can have our say on 23 May in the European elections. That is, those of us fortunate enough to retain our voting rights in the UK. While many have elected to use their vote here in Spain, others – me included – have chosen to vote in the UK.

If you’re eligible to vote, please ensure that you’re registered to do so. The deadline for registering online is close of business on Tuesday May 7th. CLICK HERE TO REGISTER

Whether you voted to Leave or Remain, and whether you still feel the same way, don’t waste our limited opportunities to have a voice and a say. Brexit is an unmitigated disaster and we’re being poorly served by our government, which is deaf and blind to public sentiment on the biggest issue of our time.

Let’s ensure a good turnout at the European elections in the hope that Theresa May finally starts listening to the prevailing ‘will of the people’. Failing that, May won’t be around much longer. We can only hope that her replacement will have better hearing and eyesight.

Sue Wilson article from the The Local