Are there enough Remain voters living in the EU to affect the election result?

Are there enough Remain voters living in the EU to affect the election result?

Nov 27, 2019 | Articles, News

Is there a strong enough Remain contingency abroad to swing the General Election?

The answer is probably that no-one knows for sure.

Certainly there are plenty of potential voters beyond Britain’s shores – by one estimate 1.2 million – though after decades of freedom of movement across the continent, figures are necessarily imprecise.

And there is not much doubt that there is a Remain majority among them, especially among those who live permanently abroad rather than spending part of the year in holiday homes.

Few will be more affected by Brexit that Britons living abroad, with uncertainty now hanging over their residents’ rights, their pensions and access to health care.

So it is reasonably to expect that many will be highly motivated to vote for Remain supporting candidates on December 12th.

In Southern Spain you will find the greatest concentration of British immigrants anywhere in the EU.

There are around 300,000 or so officially, possibly as many again living unofficially in Spain.

Many long-term residents have lost the right to vote in UK elections after 15 years abroad, but many more haven’t, and those we spoke to this week are determined their voices will be heard.

Everyone is talking about tactical voting this election, but I’ll wager nowhere more so than on the Costa del Sol.

Campaigning groups like Bremain in Spain are helping with advice and encouragement about how to vote in home constituencies to have the most effect.

Traditional tribal loyalties seem to have broken down almost completely.

Even the regional head of Conservative Abroad admitted that it was difficult to keep Remainer Conservatives from deserting the party this time.

We found life-long Conservatives holding their noses and voting for Corbyn or Swinson if it will help a Remain candidate keep a Tory out.

Labour and Lib Dems, even paid up party members, told us they were quite willing to lend their votes as necessary to have the greatest impact against Boris Johnson.

The votes cast abroad may be spread too thinly across too many constituencies to have a real impact, but there may be some super-tight marginals where they can swing the seat on election night.

And if this election is going to be close – a big ‘if’ admittedly – then the result in just a few seats may be all it takes to change the occupier in Downing Street.

Taken from ITV News webpage

 

Sue Wilson Writes: Why the Spanish election result brings hope for Britons fearing Brexit

Sue Wilson Writes: Why the Spanish election result brings hope for Britons fearing Brexit

Nov 18, 2019 | Articles, News, Sue Wilson Writes

Sue on panel at European ParliamentThanks to Brexit, I’ve recently taken more interest in British politics than in the political situation here in Spain. I’ve focused on the forthcoming British election, rather than on the Spanish one, although both have come around rather quickly!

It could be argued that the general election in Spain will affect the lives of British migrants more than the British general election. For many British citizens in Spain who are younger and working, that’s probably true. They pay into the Spanish system, are entitled to Spanish healthcare, and will have Spanish state pensions. They may have Spanish spouses and family. Their kids probably speak Spanish first, English second, and will be completely integrated into Spanish society. Meanwhile, many Leave voters in the UK tell me that I voted with my feet – by moving to Spain – and, therefore, I should have no further say in British politics.

 

As a retired Brit relying on a state pension from the UK, I feel more in the hands of the British government than the Spanish one. The British government pays for my healthcare and determines the value of my pension and whether it will continue to increase annually. Since the June 2016 referendum, Brexit has determined the value of my monthly income, because all the political twists and turns have daily affected the Pound to Euro exchange rate.

Another personal factor is that I can still vote in the imminent British election – although possibly for the last time. In Spain, I can’t vote for the national government because all Brits here are disenfranchised from doing so. Sadly, many of us are disenfranchised from voting for any national government, thanks to broken promises by the Conservative government about restoring Votes for Life.

While I was being distracted by Brexit, last week’s Spanish election rather snuck up on me. For some time, Spanish politics has existed in a state of upheaval. Unsurprisingly, with so many problems at home, the Spanish public and media have only taken a passing interest in British politics and Brexit.

Following the recent Spanish election result, we can see light at the end of the political tunnel here. The rise of the far-right – not just in Spain but across Europe – has been an ongoing concern. Many people thought that recent events in Catalonia would see the Vox party increasing in popularity and power.

While Vox did increase its share of the vote, becoming the third largest force in congress with 52 seats, the actual result was that Spain now has a left-wing coalition government. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez achieved a governing alliance between the Socialist Party and Unidas Podemos within hours of the election – a seemingly impossible feat. With 155 seats between them, PSOE/Podemos still need the endorsement of other parties. However, there’s hope that Spanish politics can finally move forwards and spare the country yet another election.

The EU welcomed the news from Spain “with much more relief than concern”. The rise of the far-right has worried the EU for some time. Yet, despite Vox rising in popularity, Spain now has one of the most left-wing governments in Europe.

We’re right to be concerned about the growth of nationalist and far-right groups, both in the UK and Spain. Nevertheless, the outcome of the Spanish election proves that the right gaining support doesn’t necessarily lead to a more right-wing government.

Back in the UK, the Brexit Party may gain further support from the British public on December 12th, but this doesn’t guarantee it a single seat in the next parliament. With the British ‘first past the post’ electoral system, support does not necessarily translate into power.

The result of the forthcoming British election is proving almost impossible to predict, with many voters determined not to vote along normal party lines, putting Brexit ahead of more usual political concerns. If all goes well, the outcome will end the rule of the most right-wing British government I’ve seen since I’ve been old enough to vote.

Let’s hope the new British government can learn lessons from Spain and work cross-party to form a coalition for the benefit of the nation. If that happens, perhaps we can avoid further elections for a few years – in Spain and Britain.

Article from The Local

 

Sue Wilson Writes: Why Boris could be our best bet to stop Brexit

Sue Wilson Writes: Why Boris could be our best bet to stop Brexit

Jun 6, 2019 | Articles, News, Sue Wilson Writes

Sue WilsonSue Wilson of Bremain in Spain takes a look at the candidates for the next Tory leader and argues that a Brexiteer could be the best tool to stop Brexit.

Since Theresa May bowed to intense pressure from the Conservative Party and handed in her resignation, many people have asked: “is she the worst prime minister in living memory”? Having seen the list of potential leadership candidates and listened to their proposals, it’s tempting to add the words “thus far”. While I wouldn’t say “come back Theresa, all is forgiven”, many Brits living in Spain are wondering if her successor will worsen our fate. Currently, 13 candidates are vying for the top job and the tally is rising daily. It’s almost easier to list the members of May’s cabinet who aren’t throwing their hats into the ring!

Every candidate seems determined to deliver Brexit – including those who weren’t initially Brexit supporters. Most go a step further, stating that a no-deal Brexit should be kept on the table, even while expressing a firm desire to close a deal. Some, such as former cabinet members, Esther McVey and Dominic Raab, are willing to pursue no-deal as their preferred Brexit option. It is only Rory Stewart, secretary of state for international development, who is rightly stating that a no-deal Brexit would be disastrous for the UK. 

Boris Johnson, currently the favourite candidate, has been uncharacteristically quiet since the leadership contest started. Perhaps he’s preoccupied with his court summons over allegations of lying to the British public. Maybe his lawyers are telling him to keep quiet, in case he says anything else incriminating.

Another common topic amongst leadership contenders is renegotiating a deal with the EU. Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president, has stated categorically that the Withdrawal Agreement negotiations are closed. In addition, the EU negotiating team is currently being disbanded, yet still we hear delusional talk of returning to Brussels to renegotiate. It’s clear from the candidates’ rhetoric that they’re not aiming their proposals at the country, but at those who can vote for them directly. Initially, that means the Conservative party MPs who will narrow the choice down to just two candidates. The final decision will be made by around 120,000 ageing Conservative Party members, predominantly Leave voters. That audience makes it unlikely that we’ll see any Remain/anti-Brexit leadership candidates – they wouldn’t stand a chance.

Brits in Spain are naturally worried that a new Prime Minister will further risk our citizens’ rights and make a no-deal Brexit more likely. The Spanish government has devised comprehensive plans to protect us if no-deal occurs, but those plans rely on reciprocity by the UK government. Some people are understandably cautious about relying on the Spanish government’s generosity, should the worst-case scenario become a reality.

While the more Brextremist leadership candidates are causing considerable concern, I would personally welcome a staunch Brexiteer as May’s replacement. The more extreme the new PM’s position on Brexit, the less support they’ll garner from parliament and the public. They’ll waste further time trying to renegotiate a deal with the EU that is already closed and trying to garner support in Westminster. The more extreme the proposals, the higher the level of rebellion that can be expected from parliament and the public alike. If I had one question for the leadership contenders, it would be: “why on earth do you want the job right now”? Surely, anyone with the skills, intelligence and humanity necessary to make a good prime minister would have the sense not to touch this poisoned chalice with 10 proverbial bargepoles tied together. With the impossibility of delivering Brexit, or gaining consensus in parliament to do so, the new prime minister will be faced with a stark choice. No-deal will be off the table – it’s the only option about which parliament is abundantly clear. Parliament has prevented no-deal before and will do so again. That only leaves putting the question back to the public, either through a general election or a second referendum.

The Conservative party, after its disastrous performance in the European elections and in recent polls, will want to avoid a general election at all costs. Theresa May might be remembered by future generations as the worst prime minister in modern history. The legacy of her successor could be as the shortest serving prime minister in history. I didn’t shed any tears for May and I won’t be shedding any for her successor either. Brexit is dead. How many more Prime Minister’s will it take before Westminster accepts that reality?

By Sue Wilson – Full article from The Local

 

Sue Wilson Writes: ‘Election result brings welcome reassurance for Brits living in Spain’

Sue Wilson Writes: ‘Election result brings welcome reassurance for Brits living in Spain’

Apr 30, 2019 | Articles, News, Sue Wilson Writes

Everywhere we go at present, there’s talk of an election. Whether it’s the Spanish general election, local elections, or the European elections, it’s hardly surprising that some of us are suffering from election fatigue, or we’re confused about the implications of the potential election results.

The result of the Spanish election on Sunday brought some welcome reassurance for Brits living in Spain, as the Spanish public was galvanised into voting both for and against the far-right. Despite being the third election in four years, turnout reached up to 75 percent. Although the Vox party made gains, its success didn’t reach the predicted level and was countered by an increase in the numbers of seats for the left and the government. The biggest loser was the centre-right PP, whose vote share collapsed – a warning, perhaps, to Theresa May’s government.

With the expectation that a coalition government can be formed, I think many Brits will sleep better at night with the prospect of stability and continuity in Spanish government. The increase in seats for PSOE provided additional reassurances that promises already made to the British residents would be honoured.

While British citizens in Spain were concerned about the impact of Spanish politics on our future, many are more concerned with events in the UK. Although we cannot participate in the UK local elections, many of us will be watching closely to see if predictions are correct – i.e. that the Conservatives and, perhaps, Labour will do badly.

The UK local elections next weekend, and the forthcoming European elections, will both serve to indicate how the British public feels – i.e. what is the now the ‘will of the people’? While incumbent governments traditionally do badly in mid-term local elections, the level of protest could be even greater than would normally be expected. The results will be a barometer of the nation’s feelings towards the government and, especially, towards Brexit. If, as expected, anti-Brexit parties such as the Liberal Democrats do well, the effect could be significant, making it increasingly difficult for the government to claim any kind of mandate for trying to further its Brexit course of action.

If the local elections could influence government strategy re Brexit, then the European elections could be more significant. While the Prime Minister still insists that Britain won’t participate, it’s almost impossible to see a scenario where this can be avoided. The only way to halt the process is for May’s rather unpopular Brexit deal to be agreed by parliament. With cross-party talks going nowhere at present, that outcome seems highly unlikely.

Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party hit the ground running with the launch of its EU election campaign ahead of the competition. Most pundits think it will do well, taking European Parliament seats from UKIP and the Conservatives. Labour seats are also at risk, unless its manifesto clearly states strong support for a #PeoplesVote and a Remain and Reform platform.

The turnout in the UK for voting in European elections has always been low. As with everything else related to Europe, the UK has never been active in promoting the benefits or the responsibilities of EU membership. Had we been more involved in the past, perhaps we wouldn’t be where we are today.

I personally take some of that blame, as I haven’t previously participated in European elections. I intend to correct that mistake on May 23rd, when I will vote for a pro-EU, anti-Brexit party. I hope that those of you who value our EU citizenship, and all the rights and benefits associated with it, will join me in voting, if they can, and will encourage friends, family, colleagues and neighbours to do the same.

On May 23rd, the UK has an opportunity to rally against the far-right, to show that the British people are tolerant, inclusive and pro-European. The Spanish have demonstrated that, by turning out in large numbers, the divisive effect of right-wing extremism can be limited. We must take every opportunity to do the same – the future of the UK and Europe depends on it.

See Sue’s article in The Local

 

Bremain BrexElection Briefing 6

Bremain BrexElection Briefing 6

Jun 4, 2017 | Election Weekly Briefing

Welcome to our 6th Briefing. Please scroll down to the end to read all the “snippets” we have chosen for you this week.  To read the whole story click on the link.  
Why every vote counts this election What unites Pink Floyd legend David Gilmour with grime artist JME and yours truly? It certainly isn’t musical talent. We, alongside almost every political party plus social media networks like Snapchat and Facebook, all urged any of you that had not registered to vote to do so – which, remarkably, put us at odds with our Government. (Stefano Hatfield iNews 28 May)

Battle for Number 10: Theresa May heckled as she defends ‘devastating’ cuts from Conservatives in TV showdown Theresa May launched a staunch defence of the Conservative Party’s manifesto pledges after she was ambushed by a police officer about “devastating” cuts to services on live TV. The Prime Minister also said she was “optimistic” about the upcoming Brexit negotiations and that she would walk away from the table if the deal was not right for Britain. She was jeered and heckled by audience members as she took questions from the public and Jeremy Paxman during a televised interview on Monday. (Johathan Mitchell Evening Standard 29 May)

Theresa May’s TV performance showed how her position has weakened The audience’s open laughter proved that the Tory manifesto has damaged the PM in the public’s eyes…..There was no instant poll of who won so you’ll have to settle for my impression, which was that Corbyn had the better of the exchanges. (Stephen Bush New Statesman 30 May)

EXCL Brussels prepared to postpone start of Brexit talks if Jeremy Corbyn becomes Prime Minister Brussels is prepared to postpone the start of the Brexit negotiations if Jeremy Corbyn becomes Prime Minister and needs more time to prepare for the historic event, PoliticsHome can reveal.  Michel Barnier, the European Union’s chief negotiator in the crunch talks, said last week that he hoped they would begin on 19 June……a European Commission source has admitted they would be prepared to allow a further postponement to the talks if the new government requests one. (Emilio Casalicchio Politics Home 31 May)

Tory candidate in Jo Cox’s former seat says sorry for saying ‘we’ve not yet shot anybody’  A Conservative candidate currently contesting murdered MP Jo Cox’s former seat has apologised for ‘appalling’ comments. Ann Myatt blamed a ‘tiring day’ for telling a hustings: ‘We’ve not yet shot anybody so that’s wonderful,’ in the constituency where the Labour MP and mum-of-two was murdered by a right-wing extremist. (Nicole Morley for Metro.co.uk 30 May)

Corbyn vows to meet Merkel ‘straight away’ if he becomes PM Jeremy Corbyn has vowed to fly to Berlin to meet Chancellor Angela Merkel “straight away” to negotiate Brexit if he wins the General Election. The Labour leader was asked by Sky News how he would deal with Brexit negotiations if he becomes Prime Minister next Friday, and what he would say to Mrs Merkel in particular. “Ich bin ein Corbyn” joked the Labour leader in reply at his Brexit speech in Basildon in Essex. ( Faisal Islam Political Editor Sky News 1 June)

What’s gone wrong with the Conservative campaign? Theresa May’s weaknesses and a lack of popular policies have driven the Tories backwards. Theresa May called the general election in more favourable circumstances than any prime minister since 1945. The Conservatives had a 19-point poll lead.  Labour appeared the weakest opposition for decades. And Brexit had gifted May a project to unite a fragmented right. Many anticipated a remorseless march to victory. But the election has not proceeded as the Tories intended. (George Eaton New Statesman 1 June) 

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Whatever happened to the Brexit election? The shameful pact of silence between the Tories and Labour regarding the biggest issue facing the country. Brexit, warned Theresa May this week, was “the one, fundamental, defining issue” that voters should focus on when they head to the polling stations next Thursday. She’s right, of course, but it’s hard to think of a more insincere statement coming from the mouth of this Prime Minister. (Nick Clegg New European 2 June)

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Tories believe momentum is swinging back their way (honestly) Conservative campaign HQ wants to move the conversation back to Brexit and leadership, where they believe they have the edge. They may be wrong, complacent or just out of touch, but among the most senior ranks at Conservative campaign headquarters they believe the U.K. general election is about to get boring again. (Tom McTague Politico 2 June updated 3 June)

 

UK General Election polls: Two thirds of 18 to 24 year olds plan to back Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour, poll suggests Two thirds of youngsters who are certain to vote in the General Election plan to back Labour, according to a new poll. The ICM survey found 68 per cent of aged 18 to 24 year olds who are registered and say they are “certain” to vote plan to support Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour. Sixteen per cent said they would vote for the Conservatives, while 8 per cent said they would go for the Lib Dems. (Hatty Collier Evening Standard 3 June)

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